The Democrats are bracing themselves to get slaughtered in the Midwest come November. From Western Pennsylvania to the Great Plains, White Independents disillusioned with Obama are preparing to take out their anger and frustrations on Democratic governors, senators, and congressmen.
Democratic fortunes in the Midwest are now so bad that the South, where the last Jacksonians are abandoning the party, looks rosier by comparison. In the Midwest, 35% of voters plan to vote for generic Democrats, as opposed to 39% of voters in the South.
If the election were held today, Democrats would lose the governorships of Ohio, Iowa, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Illinois and Michigan. They would lose Senators in Wisconsin, Indiana, and Pennsylvania. According to Democratic pollster Tom Jensen, there are too many Democratic House seats in the region to count that could be lost.
“When Obama was elected, it was almost like he was the second coming of a political Jehovah, who was somehow going to deliver us into the promised land,” said Bill Ballenger of Inside Michigan Politics. “And more and more things have happened that have disillusioned people.”
What to make of this?
1.) The upheaval in the Midwest can be attributed entirely to White voters. It is the Midwestern equivalent of the Jacksonian revolt in the South.
2.) Of all the regions of America, the Midwest is the most unstable. In the Midwest, there are more Reds who vote Democrat than anywhere else, mostly for economic reasons.
3.) As the Democratic Party comes more firmly under Blue control, due to the flight of other White constituencies in the South and West, the Reds in the Midwest will begin to gravitate toward the Red majority in the Republican Party.
4.) There is a consolidation going on within the two parties. Previously, there were lots of Blues in the Republican Party and even more Reds in the Democratic Party.
Now, the Reds are purging the Blues in the Republican Party, and the Independents and Reds in the Democratic Party are crossing over and joining them.
In July, Angelo Codevilla in America’s Ruling Class described how two-thirds of American voters, some Democrats, most Republicans, and all Independents lacked a vehicle in American politics.
This movement in White America can be seen as an effort by disenfranchised White voters to capture, purge, and transform the Republican Party into an electoral vehicle that represents their interests.
5.) The influx of so many White Independents and Democrats into the GOP has massively augmented the power of the conservative base. This explains the success of the ongoing Tea Party revolt, the unpopularity of the GOP, and the dramatic revival in Republican electoral prospects.
6.) If the economy continues to deteriorate under a Republican Congress, it remains a possibility that this shift could temporarily reverse, and the Midwest could tilt back toward the Democrats.
In the long term, it is unlikely a Blue controlled Democratic Party will be able to retain the millions of Red voters in the American Heartland. The White vote will continue to solidify. The perception that Whites are outsiders and a beleagured minority under attack from the Blue elite will grow to new heights.
By 2012, we should know whether the decline of the Democratic Party in the Midwest is a mere hiccup over economic malaise in the region, or a Red earthquake that will realign the White electorate.