Midwestern Meltdown

Senator Russ Feingold, progressive icon, is now likely to fall in November.

The Midwest

The Democrats are bracing themselves to get slaughtered in the Midwest come November. From Western Pennsylvania to the Great Plains, White Independents disillusioned with Obama are preparing to take out their anger and frustrations on Democratic governors, senators, and congressmen.

Democratic fortunes in the Midwest are now so bad that the South, where the last Jacksonians are abandoning the party, looks rosier by comparison. In the Midwest, 35% of voters plan to vote for generic Democrats, as opposed to 39% of voters in the South.

If the election were held today, Democrats would lose the governorships of Ohio, Iowa, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Illinois and Michigan. They would lose Senators in Wisconsin, Indiana, and Pennsylvania. According to Democratic pollster Tom Jensen, there are too many Democratic House seats in the region to count that could be lost.

“When Obama was elected, it was almost like he was the second coming of a political Jehovah, who was somehow going to deliver us into the promised land,” said Bill Ballenger of Inside Michigan Politics. “And more and more things have happened that have disillusioned people.”

What to make of this?

1.) The upheaval in the Midwest can be attributed entirely to White voters. It is the Midwestern equivalent of the Jacksonian revolt in the South.

2.) Of all the regions of America, the Midwest is the most unstable. In the Midwest, there are more Reds who vote Democrat than anywhere else, mostly for economic reasons.

3.) As the Democratic Party comes more firmly under Blue control, due to the flight of other White constituencies in the South and West, the Reds in the Midwest will begin to gravitate toward the Red majority in the Republican Party.

4.) There is a consolidation going on within the two parties. Previously, there were lots of Blues in the Republican Party and even more Reds in the Democratic Party.

Now, the Reds are purging the Blues in the Republican Party, and the Independents and Reds in the Democratic Party are crossing over and joining them.

In July, Angelo Codevilla in America’s Ruling Class described how two-thirds of American voters, some Democrats, most Republicans, and all Independents lacked a vehicle in American politics.

This movement in White America can be seen as an effort by disenfranchised White voters to capture, purge, and transform the Republican Party into an electoral vehicle that represents their interests.

5.) The influx of so many White Independents and Democrats into the GOP has massively augmented the power of the conservative base. This explains the success of the ongoing Tea Party revolt, the unpopularity of the GOP, and the dramatic revival in Republican electoral prospects.

6.) If the economy continues to deteriorate under a Republican Congress, it remains a possibility that this shift could temporarily reverse, and the Midwest could tilt back toward the Democrats.

In the long term, it is unlikely a Blue controlled Democratic Party will be able to retain the millions of Red voters in the American Heartland. The White vote will continue to solidify. The perception that Whites are outsiders and a beleagured minority under attack from the Blue elite will grow to new heights.

By 2012, we should know whether the decline of the Democratic Party in the Midwest is a mere hiccup over economic malaise in the region, or a Red earthquake that will realign the White electorate.

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15 Responses to Midwestern Meltdown

  1. Daybreaker says:

    Republican outreach to Jews, Blacks and Hispanics has resulted in humiliating failures. The situation isn’t what it was when Colin Powell was effectively offered the presidency, when neoconservatives could imply that a change in policy and personnel would move the Jewish vote to the Republican column, or when John McCain fondly supposed that if George W. Bush and Karl Rove couldn’t get much action from the Hispanic vote, that just meant a stronger champion of the Hispanic cause was required, like himself.

    That doesn’t mean that the neoconservative establishment, the open borders lobby or even Michael Steele will go away. Through whatever false hopes they obtained power and they have no intention of giving it up.

    What it does mean is that a new elite in charge of the Republican Party would have no reason to believe wild stories about what improvements are possible in the party’s fortunes if certain things are tried.

    I’ve read that Winston Churchill said he trusted the Americans to do the right thing after they had tried everything else. I hope the Republican Party will do the right thing more often, since it’s already tried everything else.

  2. John Pelham says:

    An encouraging sign that things are changing has been the impotence of the RNC and RSCC this election cycle. Conservatives are now bypassing the GOP establishment and contributing directly to candidates.

    A few days ago, it was announced that Karl Rove and Mitt Romney had contributed to the Christine O’Donnell campaign in Delaware. Bob Dole also contributed and endorsed O’Donnell. National Review attacked O’Donnell without much effect.

    Compare the strength of the GOP establishment in 2010 to 1992 when Pat Buchanan ran for president. Here you have O’Donnell, someone who has dabbled in witchcraft, a clown who once appeared regularly on Bill Maher’s Politically Incorrect, as a viable candidate getting the endorsement of Bob Dole.

    Just a few years ago, that would have been unthinkable.

  3. John Pelham says:

    We’ve always assumed that the GOP establishment was far more powerful than it actually was.

    In hindsight, the key to its power seems to have been the fact that the conservative vote was divided. Many people assume that the South went Republican after the Civil Rights Movement. That’s not what happened.

    It wasn’t until the 1990s that the South finally started to lean Republican in Congress. Even in the 1990s, there were still plenty of White conservatives in the Democratic Party. This is why Clinton was able to carry states like Georgia, Louisiana, Arkansas, Tennessee, and West Virginia.

    Now that virtually all White conservatives are in the Republican Party, the GOP establishment is losing its grip on power, and its decline is signaling to independent voters that the Republican Party is weak and ripe for a hostile takeover.

    This neocon strategy of Jewish and Hispanic outreach was based on the relative power of the Republican elite. That power is evaporating.

    It will soon become clear that the GOP can pick up far more White voters in the Midwest than it can ever hope to pick up Hispanics in the Southwest. The atrophy of White Democratic voters in the South and Southwest will also reinforce conservative dominance there.

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  6. Nightowl says:

    My question is who is all this outreach really for, is it to gain black members or is it more for reassurance to nimble whites that they aren’t racist? Considering how far to the left the anti-white pendulum swung, Beck’s urging a color-blind society, as whites were fooled was the extent of King’s goal, will start swinging the pendulum back in the right direction. If we really could get rid of all these preferences for minorities under the petty tyranny of political correctness it would instantly have a profound benefit for whites. It would also pull the rug out from the false status of blacks being handed vast numbers of jobs they don’t deserve. No way could blacks ever support going back to King’s Colorblind society, they’d lose big time in a fair competition and they know it. Nope, blacks will never go for that.

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