Lost in a Fantasy World
In The Huffington Post, Dylan Loewe has a triumphalist article about his new book, Permanently Blue, which predicts the Democrats will rule America for at least a generation. The bold subtitle is “How the Democrats Can End the Republican Party and Rule the Next Generation.”
Heading into the 2010 elections, this prediction of Blue hegemony over Red America sounds awfully out of touch with reality, and slightly reminiscent of a similar claim made by James Carville in 2008. Not to worry. Young Dylan predicts this is only a temporary bump in the road.
His basic argument is essentially the “common wisdom” of popular clichés that prevails on the Left:
1.) White America is rapidly aging. By mid-century, Whites will become a minority, and the Minority-Majority of blacks, Asians, Jews, and Hispanics will rule America with White liberals.
2.) Millennials are “without question” the “most socially liberal generation” in American history. Younger voters will turn out for the Democrats and sustain a “permanently blue” majority.
3.) By caving to the Tea Party and anti-immigrant rhetoric, the Republican Party will alienate the Hispanic voters and Millennials it needs to remain a viable political force on the national level.
Says Dylan, “November might be an ass-kicking. But it’s poised to be our last one for quite a long while.”
At first glance, this seems to be a persuasive argument, but upon closer inspection it doesn’t wash. It is based on a number of key assumptions which are already being exposed as false.
1.) Holding Action – Dylan Loewe takes for granted that Democrats can hold on to the White voters who are already in their column. The majority of Whites who vote Democrat are moderates, not liberal progressives, especially in the Midwest.
Loewe assumes that caving to the Minority-Majority will not alienate White Democrats who are ambivalent about progressives. Yet in states like Arkansas and West Virginia we can see the Clinton Democrats were leaving the fold to vote for John McCain.
The Democratic Party is heading for disaster in 2010 because it has alienated Whites who do vote by pandering to non-Whites who often either don’t vote or can’t vote. Only 28% of Whites now approve of Barack Obama.
Progressives are clueless if they believe they can govern America by losing the Midwest like they once lost the South. As we move further into the twenty-first century, “Heartland America” will increasingly take shape as Whites in the American interior – the “Country Class” – find a greater unity.
2.) Economic Recovery - This rosy scenario assumes that the Democratic Party can provide solutions to America’s economic decline. The economy is the only card that Democrats have to play over Republicans. Two years into the Obama administration, “hope” and “change” fizzled into nothing but trillion dollar bailouts for the banks.
States like Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania – where Whites vote Democrat for economic reasons – are now shading Red because there is no compelling economic reason to vote for Democrats anymore. Even California could soon emerge with a Republican Governor and Senator.
In times of plenty, Americans are more optimistic about the future and willing to share. The Civil Rights Movement triumphed in the boom years of the 1950s and 1960s.
In times of hardship, Americans become pessimistic and turn inward, which explains the sudden outrage about taxes and government spending. Now that we are officially in the “bust phase” of American civilization, the political environment will only grow radically more unfavorable to progressives.
3.) The Youth Vote – Progressives are suddenly pinning their hopes on the Millennials because the Greatest Generation and Boomers have turned on them. This is a startling oversight on their part.
The Greatest Generation was raised on FDR, Truman, and JFK. These are people like my grandmother who proudly voted for LBJ and Bill Clinton. Many of them have voted Democrat almost their entire lives out of habit. Their worldview was formed in the Depression.
The Baby Boomers, of course, were the hippies and beatniks of the 1960s. They were the ones who brought the counterculture into the American mainstream. Their worldview was formed in the Civil Rights Movement and Vietnam years which were a time of unprecedented prosperity.
Now the Greatest Generation and the Baby Boomers constitute the overwhelming majority of the 72% of White Americans who reject Barack Obama. This means that Whites who voted for LBJ, McGovern, and Clinton are now involved with the Tea Party.
What makes progressives think the Millennials won’t turn on them as well? If anything is true, the White Millennials are even more likely to turn on them, and far more radically, as they and their children will be the ones who inherit the Minority-Majority, decades of racial conflict, and a bankrupt Third World America.
The Millennials are now graduating from high school and college. In a few years, they will be in the real world and outside the indoctrination centers, trying to establish independence from their parents. Let’s see how racial harmony fairs in the long run in Depression conditions and a zero sum game of racial conflict over scarce resources.
4.) Passivity – Dylan Loewe assumes that Red America will passively accept permanent Blue hegemony. This is a delusional fantasy. The political class has already suffered a total collapse of legitimacy in the eyes of White America.
Loewe assumes that the next forty years will be like the previous forty. This is a gross mistake. In the years ahead, White America will cease to feel like the insider, will start acting like a minority voting bloc, and will become conscious of its own identity.
The American South went through a transition in the 1840s and 1850s from Jacksonian nationalism to Calhounian sectionalism. Nullification and state sovereignty have already returned in spectacular fashion.
In the twenty-first century, “Heartland America” will experience a similar awakening, as the gap between “Real Americans” and others widens to the point where there is a rupture. Like the Union in the 1860s, the White minority will dissolve the country before it is passively led in the direction the Blue elite is heading.
5.) Minorities – Loewe assumes that the Democratic advantage with minority voters can be sustained. This is also an illusion because Whites will remain powerful enough to frustrate politicians like Barack Obama who try to deliver on promises like “comprehensive immigration reform.”
The most likely scenario is gridlock. The declining White majority will torpedo the progressive agenda in one Congress after another. The end result will be the mutual hostility, frustrated ambition, and polarization that will solidify Whites into a racial voting bloc.
That’s what destroyed the Union the last time around: a frustrated majority trying to rule, an implacable minority unwilling to surrender power. It is how we will get from here to the ethnostate.